Entries by martinadmin

Hooghe, M., & Okolikj, M. (2018) The Long-term Effects of Economic Crisis on Political Trust in Europe. Is There a Negativity Bias in the Relation Between Economic Performance and Political Support?

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that the economic crisis starting in 2008 has been associated with a sharp decline in political trust in liberal democracies, and this literature suggest that in this manner an economic downturn might contribute to a more structural crisis of democratic legitimacy. Already from 2011 on, however, unemployment levels in industrialized […]

Quinlan, S., & Okolikj, M. (2017) Patrimonial Economic Voting: a Cross-National Analysis of Asset Ownership and its Impact on the Vote (under review)

Abstract: Our study examines the impact possession of assets has on the vote in 32 countries. Most existing scholarship on economic voting has stressed valence models that focus on the rewards and punishments directed at governments by voters depending on their stewardship of the economy. Here, we focus on an alternative dimension – the role of […]

Bubbico, A., Elkink, A. J., & Okolikj, M. (2017) Quality of government and regional competition: A spatial analysis of subnational regions in the European Union. European Journal of Political Research, 56(4), 887-911.

Abstract: Building on previous work on competition networks and governmental performance among British local governments, this article investigates the diffusion of government quality across subnational regions of Europe through strategic interaction with neighbouring regions or competitor regions more generally. The article demonstrates the presence of spatial interdependence using standard spatial regression models and controlling for […]

Quinlan, S., & Okolikj, M. (2017) The Decline of a Dominant Political Monolith: Understanding Fianna Fáil’s vote 1987-2016. Irish Political Studies, 32(1), 164-190.

Abstract: Our study explores the declining vote of Fianna Fáil, Ireland’s dominant party using a unique fusion of data from the 1989-1999 European Election Studies and the 2002-2016 Irish National Election Studies. We show the weakening of Fianna Fáil’s dominant position is due to electoral change: shifting voter identities and the growing importance of economic evaluations […]

Okolikj, M., & Elkink, J. (2016) Comparing with Which Neighbours? A Test of Economic Benchmark Voting

Abstract: Economic voting theory is based on a very simple notion: “voters support the incumbent government if the economy is doing well, otherwise the vote is against” (Lewis-Beck and Paldam 2000). However, the evidence that voters reward and punish incumbent governments for economic performance is rather unstable or weak (Duch and Stevenson 2008; Anderson 2007; Van der Brug et […]

Okolikj, M., & Quinlan, S. (2016). Context matters: Economic voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections. Politics and Governance, 4(1), 145-166.

Abstract: Using the 2009 and 2014 European Election Studies (EES), we explore the effect of the economy on the vote in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections. The paper demonstrates that the economy did influence voters in both contests. However, its impact was heterogeneous across the two elections and between countries. While assessments […]

Okolikj, M. (2015) Quality of Government and Incumbents Performance: A Re-conceptualisation of Economic Voting Theory

Abstract: A conventional wisdom among scholars of electoral studies holds that good economic performance correlates with incumbent government advantage in elections. Yet, cross national empirical studies of this reward-punishment hypothesis produces inconsistent and relatively weak results. The aim of this study is to re-conceptualise the retrospective economic voting model by taking into account the mediating […]

Quinlan, S., & Okolikj, M. (2016). This time it’s different… but not really! The 2014 European Parliament elections in Ireland. Irish Political Studies, 31(2), 300-314.

Abstract: This report provides a review of the 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections in Ireland. Conventional wisdom suggests attitudes to the incumbent government or to the candidates on offer have shaped EP elections in Ireland, with sentiments about the EU having little potency. 2014 had the potential to be different: the EU had been especially […]